Undergraduate forecast skill by class level and participation time in the WxChallenge National Weather Forecasting Contest : 2005-2016

Abstract

The demand for accurate weather forecasts drives the inclusion of weather forecasting in college meteorology curricula. An important part of this education is the requirement and encouragement for students to participate in competitive weather forecasting contests. The WxChallenge is one such forecasting contest open to all students, faculty and alumni of North American universities, and thus has enjoyed widespread participation since its inception in 2005. This research investigated the development of forecast skill throughout the undergraduate careers of students participating in the WxChallenge since 2005. This development occurs primarily through exposure to meteorological knowledge and experience with forecasting. The forecast skill of undergraduates was evaluated for changes through time as this development progressed to determine whether increased meteorological knowledge or forecasting experience had any significant effect on skill. It was found that both experience and class level have impacted forecasting skill significantly, with most improvement in skill occurring in the first few semesters of an undergraduate’s career. As a result, the WxChallenge can substantiate its claim as a useful forecasting tool in the meteorology classroom, and these results can help encourage students early in their college career to gain experience forecasting in order to develop skill early.