Abstract:
It is known that climate has a direct effect on vectorborne
and zoonotic diseases, and in the face of climate
change, understanding this link has become more
urgent. Many such vector-borne diseases primarily
afflict impoverished populations and have therefore
been previously understudied. One major focus of our
research is to understand the influence that climate has
on the distribution of disease causing microorganisms
and their vectors, especially those in relation to American
trypanosomiasis (Chagas disease). Chagas disease is caused
by the hemoflagellate protozoan parasite, Trypanosoma
cruzi. For this study, we hypothesized that the increasing
prevalence Chagas in the state of Texas is due to
expanding distributions of vectors. To test this hypothesis,
historical data on vector distribution and climate was
used to determine the probable locations of prevalent
vectors in Texas. Predictions for the future distributions
were made using environmental niche models for
bioclimatic variables with a maximum entropy algorithm.
Of the two Triatominae species studied, the range and
concentration of both decreased under a global warming
scenario, a finding that is consistent with the current
research of risk of Chagas disease in Venezuela. In future,
this same procedure will be used on more Chagas vectors
to better understand if there is a northward shift for
vectors, or if Texas is becoming more inhospitable to all
vectors of Chagas.
