Abstract:
Significant snowfall events are a serious disruptor along the east coast of the United
States. Major snow events impact the health of citizens, transportation, and the economy. One of
the problems that we face is that budgets for snowfall removal are driven more by the number of
events rather than total snowfall. A key issue forecasters face is predicting the number of
significant snow events in a given winter season. Long-term forecasting, however, has improved
significantly in the last few decades. Teleconnections or large scale variability patterns have been
shown to give forecasters a good idea of how severe the winter season will be. For example,
shifts in the jet stream are highly correlated with the phase of the teleconnection pattern.
Although previous studies have shown connections between the phase of these teleconnections
and the annual winter snowfall, little has been done to show if there is a connection between the
phase of the teleconnections and the frequency of significant snowfall events. There has also
been little research done on the annual variability in the number of significant snowfall events
per season in recent years.
A statistical analysis revealed that a weak negative relationship exists between the value
of the teleconnection and the number of significant event days on the annual time scale and a
moderate negative relationship exists on a monthly scale. An observational analysis of the annual
variability showed that there is a notable amount of seasonal variability in the number of
significant snowfall event days per season. A cluster analysis found that there was generally a
higher number of significant snowfall event days in the north but in some years the southern
states contributed more to the significant snowfall days than the northern states.
