Winning confidence and betting behavior as a function of outcome incentive strength and delayed outcome gratification : an honors thesis (HONRS 499)

Abstract

A laboratory experiment was conducted in order to test the hypotheses that outcome incentive strength and payoff timing influence winning confidence and betting behavior in randomly-determined events. Specifically, subjects' confidence perceptions were predicted to increase as a direct function of outcome value, and wagering behavior expected to decrease as a direct function of outcome value, but only when winning the game results in immediate payoff. In the experiment, subjects competed against the experimenter for either a high or low-value outcome in a purely chance-based game. Using analyses of variance, marginally significant results were found for both subjects' appraisals of confidence and their betting behavior.