Information leakage in stock options markets
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Abstract
Information is the key to any successful market. In equity markets, the possession of undiscovered or unpublished information can lead to abnormal returns. This study attempts to determine if there is a relationship between option volumes and earnings surprises. By examining option volumes leading up to company earnings announcements for the 100 companies in the S&P 100 Index over the five year period from 2008 to 2012 and comparing these figures to the earnings surprises of the firms for each announcement period, this study aims to determine if option volumes have predictive ability for company performance. Ultimately, results were not entirely conclusive. Call option volumes were only 40% successful in predicting an earnings surprise, but put option volumes were 62% effective. Utilizing both calls and puts to predict earnings surprise directions was only 25% predictive. These results suggest that unusual option volume is not a reliable predictor of earnings surprise direction.