Investigating the effects of major league baseball's extra-inning rule change: a mathematical and data-driven report

Abstract

This thesis analyzes the many effects that Major League Baseball’s extra-inning rule change, implemented in 2020, has had on the culmination of overtime contests. Put into play to reduce the duration of games that go to overtime, adding a free “ghost runner” to 2nd base has made its mark in altering the way extra innings are played. Because of the unorthodox success seen by the road team, this report attempts to find a rationale as to why the away team has won 53% of extra inning matches since implementation of the new overtime rules. Additionally, because of the fragility that late-game situations have on the outcome of the game, this report will dive into the win expectancies from various strategies that teams have the opportunity to utilize with a runner on 2nd base and no outs. In other words, “the right way” of approaching how to play extra inning contests will be investigated, both from a traditional baseball sense, and from a data driven view.