Roman Catholic seminary survival (1968-1983) : a multivariate statistical analysis of the CARA seminary directories

No Thumbnail Available
Rosinski, Bernard J.
Pole, E. John
Issue Date
Thesis (D. Ed.)
Other Identifiers

The purpose of the study was to provide a predictive account for a nearly 60 percent decrease in the number of Catholic seminaries extant in 1968. Standards for seminary operations published by the Catholic Bishops in 1968 and 1971 were hypothesized to have no predictive relationship with seminary survival. The population consisted of all qualified Catholic seminaries in the United States. Cell group arrangements, obtained from the intersection of seminary survival with seminary academic levels, served as criterion composites with a variety of seminary measures serving as predictor composites in four differentiated multiple discriminant analyses. Survival alone served as criterion with regression analysis.The annual CARA Seminary Directory served as database. Values for more than seventy measures were obtained for use with univariate hypotheses tests from the CARA Seminary Directory. The level of probability set for rejection of the null hypotheses was .05.Findings1.Student body size, number of doctors on faculty, number of bachelors on faculty, and diocesan Catholic population were among the successful stepwise predictors of seminary survival.2.Size of faculty, size of administration, total number of priests, articulation pattern, state approval, and number of professional memberships were among the unsuccessful stepwise predictors of seminary survival.3. Generally, hypothesized variables were unsuccessful blockwise predictors of survival.4.Seventeen significant discrimant functions were found in the four discriminant analyses; eight functions reduced to two successful predictors of seminary survival by seminary level for initial and terminal data sets: (1) faculty qualification, and (2) commitment to run a school.Conclusions1.Multivariate predictors of seminary survival based on 1968 data differed from predictors based on terminal data for the most part.2. Individual norms and standards proposed by the Catholic Bishops had an unanticipated joint effect upon seminary survival.3. For the most part, closure or amalgamation of seminaries could not be predicted by failure to fulfill particular norms or standards proposed by the Catholic Bishops.